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The Home Improvement Research Institute’s 2026 Summit, held in Minneapolis on Sept. 29-30, examined market conditions, customer decisions, AI and project spending. HIRI forecast that the market would grow 2.5% in current dollars in 2026 but contract 1.5% after inflation; speakers also reported AI use among homeowners planning renovations and confidence among contractors.
The Home Improvement Research Institute’s 2026 Home Improvement Insights Summit brought industry leaders to Minneapolis on Sept. 29-30 to examine economic pressures, customer behavior, artificial intelligence and the outlook for home improvement spending. HIRI’s market forecast, presented at the event, projected 2.5% growth in current dollars in 2026, but a 1.5% decline after inflation.
The two-day summit organized sessions around five themes: macroeconomics, the customer journey, data and market research, project spending, and sales channels. Speakers addressed how inflation, home affordability, mortgage rates and income are shaping homebuilding and homebuying, as well as how professionals and technology influence consumers’ product and project choices.
Danushka Nanayakkara-Skillington, assistant vice president for forecasting and analysis at the National Association of Home Builders, discussed the effect of inflation and other economic factors on housing. She cited a change in the median age of first-time homebuyers: 40 in the current period, compared with 29 in 1981. The summit report also describes a discussion involving HIRI’s Dave King, OpenBrand chief economist Ralph McLaughlin and S&P Global director Michael Zdinak on the roles of affordability, mortgage rates and income for buyers.
Contractor and homeowner findings offered a mixed picture of demand and changing decision-making. Grant Farnsworth, president of The Farnsworth Group, presented results from the Q2 2026 Quarterly Contractor Business Sentiment Tracker and the Farnsworth Contractor Index for Q3. The reported score for contractor confidence in getting business over the next six months was 8.2 out of 10. Houzz senior vice president of marketing Liza Hausman presented company research indicating that 22% of homeowners use AI for renovation and that 25% of renovation dollars are in households using AI to help with renovation decisions.
Inflation Changes the Market Outlook
The headline forecast separates nominal sales growth from the market’s inflation-adjusted performance. HIRI projected that home improvement products would gain 2.5% in current dollars in 2026, while the market would shrink 1.5% after inflation. Those measures describe different things: spending can rise in dollar terms even as purchasing power or real market volume falls. The forecast points to the importance of distinguishing price-driven growth from an increase in actual activity.
For manufacturers and retailers, the summit’s findings also highlight the pressure on customers weighing the cost of housing and renovations. HIRI’s Dave King urged manufacturers to reduce uncertainty in customers’ decisions in the coming quarter. That recommendation reflects the commercial challenge described at the event: buyers face affordability questions, while businesses must respond to evolving research habits and the growing presence of AI in renovation planning.
The AI figures suggest the technology is already part of some homeowners’ renovation process, but they do not establish that AI caused purchases or changed spending. The reported share of renovation dollars refers to households that use AI to help, not to spending generated by AI. For businesses, the data is an indicator of consumer behavior to monitor, rather than proof of a particular sales effect.
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The Summit’s Market Questions
HIRI convened the event as a forum for home improvement professionals to review industry data and discuss factors affecting the market. Its five session themes connected economic conditions to customer decisions and sales channels, rather than treating market growth as a single measure. The program included research presentations, discussions of contractor sentiment and a case study in maintaining consumer trust.
Kevin O’Connor, host of This Old House, spoke about the brand’s approach to staying relevant. According to the summit report, he emphasized educating audiences first, being accurate and avoiding a transactional tone. His remarks addressed how trust and guidance can shape a customer relationship in a market where homeowners may seek information from both industry professionals and AI tools.
The event’s market outlook was drawn from HIRI’s Q3 2026 Size of the Home Improvement Products Market Report and Forecast. The report material supplied for this article gives the 2026 growth and inflation-adjusted contraction figures but does not provide the forecast’s detailed assumptions or a breakdown by product category. The contractor and Houzz findings likewise come from separate research presented at the summit, not from one combined measurement.
“Take uncertainty out of the customer’s decision in the coming quarter.”
— Dave King, HIRI
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Limits of the Reported Findings
The source report does not specify the survey methods, sample sizes or precise field dates for the contractor tracker or the Houzz research. It also does not give the full forecast assumptions behind HIRI’s 2026 market estimates or clarify which economic scenarios could alter them. Readers should treat the figures as findings and forecasts presented at the summit, not as a guarantee of year-end results.
The report says 22% of homeowners use AI for renovation and that households using AI account for 25% of renovation dollars, but it does not define the types of AI use, the spending period or whether use led to higher or lower project costs. The reported 8.2 contractor confidence score is tied to expected business over six months; it is not a direct count of future jobs or a measure of completed work. Further detail on the measures is needed to compare them with other periods or populations.
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The Next Quarter for Manufacturers
King’s recommendation points to the next near-term test for manufacturers: how they respond to customers’ uncertainty in the coming quarter. The summit report does not identify specific product launches, policy decisions or follow-up actions announced at the event. HIRI’s forecast and the contractor and homeowner indicators will remain relevant benchmarks as businesses assess demand and prepare for 2027.
For readers tracking the market, the next useful updates will include subsequent HIRI forecast releases, comparable contractor sentiment results and further detail on how homeowners use AI during renovation planning. Until those measures are available, the summit offers a snapshot of expectations and reported behavior, not a final account of how the 2026 market performed.
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Key Questions
What did HIRI forecast for the home improvement market in 2026?
HIRI’s Q3 2026 market forecast projected 2.5% growth in current dollars and a 1.5% contraction after inflation. The figures are a forecast reported at the summit, not a confirmed final result.
What did the summit report about homeowners and AI?
Houzz senior vice president of marketing Liza Hausman said the company’s 2026 research found that 22% of homeowners use AI for renovation. The research also put 25% of renovation dollars in households using AI to help, though the report does not establish that AI caused the spending.
How confident were contractors about getting business?
Grant Farnsworth presented a Q3 2026 Farnsworth Contractor Index score of 8.2 out of 10 for contractor confidence in getting business over the next six months. The score reflects reported confidence, not a count of jobs secured.
When and where was the HIRI summit held?
The Home Improvement Insights Summit took place in Minneapolis on Sept. 29-30, 2026.
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